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Project Number: p04-02h

Predictive Modeling of SSA Beneficiary, Employer, and Employment Network Attributes Associated with the Use of Return to Work Incentives Phase I: Ticket to Work Incentives

Principal Investigators: Thomas Prudhomme and Michael Welge

Project Type: High Priority

Project Year: 04

Thematic Category: Return to Work

Project Summary:

Assisting SSDI and SSI beneficiaries to re-enter or transition into the workforce for the first time is a key strategic element in the Social Security Administration's disability insurance and supplemental insurance programs. A reliable assessment of which beneficiaries who are currently in the system and who might successfully return to work using the various incentives available is essential to the management, long-term success and evolution of the program. It would also provide a means to design new programs or program modifications that would enable more beneficiaries to use the incentives to successfully engage in productive employment. Employer and employment network (EN) behaviors are also important to understand as they represent the "demand" side of the Ticket to Work program.

The first 12 months of this project will examine the behavior of SSA beneficiaries, employers and ENs that have participated in work incentives programs. The goal of Phase I is to statistically profile the attributes and activity histories of beneficiaries, employers, and ENs participating in the Ticket to Work program, and to study the relationships among the profile models and return to work outcomes. Predictive models can be built from these relationships and used for "what-if" analyses by modifying initial conditions and model constraints.